Drivers of future urban flood risk

O’Donnell, Emily C. and Thorne, Colin R. (2020) Drivers of future urban flood risk. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378. pp. 1-23. ISSN Print:1364-503X Online:1471-2962

Preview

Text Drivers of future urban flood risk - rsta.2019.0216.pdf Download (26MB) | Preview

Abstract

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the twenty-first century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002–2004 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban asset deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in buildings and contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated) have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: loss of flood able urban spaces and indirect economic impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Library of Congress Subject > G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) Library of Congress Subject > G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Library of Congress Subject > H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) Library of Congress Subject > S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Geography
Depositing User:	Miss Alya Mohd
Date Deposited:	11 Jan 2022 04:35
Last Modified:	11 Jan 2022 04:35
URI:	http://demoeprints.lemonjar.com.my:82/id/eprint/196

Actions (login required)

View Item

Downloads